A fresh report from Rethink Energy predicts that perovskite solar modules reach GW-scale manufacturing from 2028, taking over the entire industry by 2040. Today we see a constant stream of trial commercial shipments, and that tandem modules have reached parity with silicon on lifetime power output – with huge room for further upgrades on lifespan and efficiency. 

This means that solar’s price declines and quality improvements haven’t reached a plateau – the solar levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is going to keep improving through 2040 and beyond. 

It will take many years of manufacturing expansions to catch up with the scale of the general solar industry – but specific market segments will be transformed or even created by perovskites, in particular rooftop solar.  

Tandem modules, combining silicon and perovskite layers to reach both higher efficiencies and higher lifetime power output values than conventional silicon can achieve will be big in the US, with tariffs and subsidies helping the new technology to be adopted in the face of China’s ultra-cheap products. And tandems will become the dominant form of solar manufacturing worldwide in the 2030s – replacing and assimilating the silicon industry. 

Single-junction perovskites on the other hand bring something new to the table – a thin-film solar product that’s affordable. Where rival technologies like CIGS never attained mass adoption, single-junction perovskites promise far lower production costs which will enable them to claim stakes in satellite power, device-integrated cells, but most importantly solar installations on facades and on non-load-bearing rooftops. That will change the game for distributed solar installations across the Commercial & Industrial (C&I), municipal, and residential segments. The appeal of batteries, plus solar is only going to grow over time – even if the electricity price was not set for further increases. 

If you’re a Chief Sustainability Officer or other official in charge of adopting green power sources or simply reducing the electricity bill through investments in distributed energy – you need to read this report. So does anyone else involved in the solar industry, especially project developers and rooftop solar installers. 

Policymakers also need to read this report to understand the opportunity which perovskites offer to a solar manufacturing reshoring agenda – with inherently lower energy and investment costs making this a far easier supply chain to reshore compared to the burdensome polysilicon and wafer segments which silicon photovoltaics rely on. 

This report is informed by interviews with the better part of a dozen perovskite companies whose operations are spread across the US, mainland Europe, the UK, Australia, and Canada.  Our coverage and forecasting of perovskites, and our contacts in the sector, go back to late 2020. 

Rethink has also closely followed the extensive plans being laid in China, whether by mainstream giants, dedicated perovskite companies of moderate size, and the dozens of small startups looking to make thin-film products. 

This is the latest forecast in the Rethink Energy Archive, which now includes: 

• Perovskite Solar Forecast to 2040
• Decarbonization of Road and Rail Transport
• EV Structural Material Trends to 2040
• Electrolyzer Market Forecast to 2040; critical insights for stakeholders navigating the complexities of the hydrogen sector 
• VPPs will become the core of the future energy grid; Virtual Power Plant Forecast to 2040 
• Global Electricity Grid: Strategies for Overcoming an Imminent Bottleneck 
• Lithium lull makes nickel top priority for US battery OEMs despite difficult sourcing environment 
• Renewables end 2023 with costs falling, eyeing greener pastures 
• How solar price declines in polysilicon, high-purity quartz, silver paste and other elements will shake out through 2040 
• Green H2 transportation to revolutionize trade; The deeper implications of an emerging global industry 
• How the global battery industry will adapt to the exploding requirements of the automotive and energy storage sectors 
• Geothermal goes global, just in time to save oil service $billions 
• Global Hydrogen Market Forecast to 2050