Powered by cheap oil, the circulatory system of our economy has globalized, expanding populations, wealth, specialization beyond all historical measure. Yet the founding assumption of our success has failed and we are coasting on the momentum of cheap oil. Increasing supply of cheap oil peaked in May 2005. Since that peak gas prices and home foreclosures have skyrocketed as more and more people cannot afford their commute, food and house payments. The evaporation of Bear Stearns indicates the accelerating rate of consequences.
Re-tooling Transportation
Bill James and Charlie Fletcher
“To be thrown upon one's own resources, is to be cast into the very lap of fortune; for our faculties then undergo a development and display an energy of which they were previously unsusceptible.” |
Bill James and Charlie Fletcher |
Powered by cheap oil, the circulatory system of our economy has globalized, expanding populations, wealth, specialization beyond all historical measure. Yet the founding assumption of our success has failed and we are coasting on the momentum of cheap oil. Increasing supply of cheap oil peaked in May 2005. Since that peak gas prices and home foreclosures have skyrocketed as more and more people cannot afford their commute, food and house payments. The evaporation of Bear Stearns indicates the accelerating rate of consequences. Greater circulatory failure is certain if we do not re-tool transportation more quickly than escalating energy costs drag down the economy. The timeline for action is very short but we can turn this crisis into an opportunity; we can change the lifeblood of our economy from oil to ingenuity. America can reestablish its self-reliance. If we had the answers, we would have solved the problems; oil prices would be falling; there would be no congestion in rush hour; Peak Oil and Climate Change would be resolved. Since we are not solving the problems, we need more and/or different solutions. Start by understanding our current energy sources and uses. Face the brutal facts of our reality. And churn from where we are to where we need to be. EfficiencyOur current infrastructure the cause of Peak Oil and Climate Change. We built this infrastructure. We can build better. Re-tooling will not be easy or quick. It will take 5 years to get a running start and likely 25-50 years to have a sustainable infrastructure base. CSX Railroad's recent TV ads state they can move a ton 423 miles on a gallon of fuel. By choice urban transport is radically less efficient, using a gallon of gas to move a person 18 miles. We know how to do better; we just don't allow innovation.
According to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory transportation is 20% efficient at moving vehicles and goods while 80% drives climate change. Innovations that preempt this waste provide an immediate hope for oil independence and Global Warming. Brutal Facts As documented in the book Good to Great, Admiral Stockdale, the leader of American POW’s at the Hanoi Hilton prison camp explained who did not survive the ordeal. The optimists, those who thought we would be out by Christmas, then Christmas after Christmas passed until they died of a broken heart. Those that survived the ordeal exhibited what has come to be called the Stockdale paradox; an unwavering faith that in the end we will prevail while confronting the brutal facts of our current reality. The brutal facts of our current reality:
Churn Churn is the economic equivalent to evolution; the process of trying a lot of stuff and keeping what works:
As oil prices double, our transportation and logistical infrastructure become more brittle. Our circulatory system has leukemia (Global Warming is killing our planet) and heart attacks (unstable oil prices shocks). Yet we remain hostile to innovations. Take Morgantown’s PRT (Personal Rapid Transit) system as an example. In 1974 the US Senate formally asked DOT for solutions to prevent future oil embargoes. DOT answered in the 1975 Study PB-244854 recommending Automated Guideways and Personal Rapid Transit. Morgantown became operational in 1975 and has since delivered 110 million injury-free passenger miles. DOT Study PB-244854 predicted in its report why Morgantown’s innovation would fail to expand beyond Morgantown:
Regulatory monopolies should be broken so innovations can churn. We are facing a choice of adapting or face the collapse of our food, distribution and logistical systems. We believe, we will adapt and prosper, it will be difficult and we will constantly be pressed by time and emergencies. And in 50 years the cost of transportation will be as relatively expensive as cell phones are today. TimelineIf our logistical system were the Titanic, here is a comparison of timelines:
Demand (black) cannot exceed Supply (red). Inventories must drops or prices increases to kill demand. On Dec 31, 2007 oil closed at $96.23, well above the projection that will result in $200 per barrel by 2012. Trading range in 2008 will likely be $80-140. If you were on the Titanic, you should be in your lifeboat. It is another paradox, but if every economic community had a lifeboat, we would not need them. To those that delay action, questioning the payback, please ask this question of yourself, “What is the payback of not having a lifeboat when one is needed?” Specific actionsFortunately, economic lifeboats can be locally built and many actions are simple. Unfortunately, most actions take time to ramp up. The quicker communities act the more durable they will be. As a measure of actions the following formula structures aspects of logistical durability: Logistical Durability = Experience times Energy (sources, quantity and price) times Efficiency (congestion, fuel economy) divided by Population (rate of consumption) divided by Mass (consumption, vehicles, goods and people) Following is a breakdown of some actions to enhance logistical durability:
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